The Likelihood of Persistently Low Global Fertility
By Michael Geruso and Dean Spears.
Lead article in the American Economic Association's Journal of Economic Perspectives.
Ungated download at the AEA: [link]
"As long as birth rates hold at any level below two children per two adults—even at some steady, unchanging level—the slide down would continue indefinitely. ... These projections raise the questions that are the focus of this article: Is this sort of future, in fact, likely? Could low birth rates persist? The facts and evidence that we present here indicate that sustained global depopulation is a likely possibility."